In a Tight Race, Will Jews Decide the Election?

Prior to the financial collapse, the expectation was that this would be a very close election.

In fact, several weeks ago some electoral maps showed state races were so close the electoral college could have ended in a tie and the decision would have been thrown to the House of Representatives. In other scenarios a shift in a single small state (such as New Hampshire) could change the outcome of the election.

If the election is not close, no one constituency will make a difference. But if the race tightens again, it is pos- sible to say that any consti- tuency could affect the outcome - Reagan Democrats, hockey moms, Hispanic.

Jews could also play a key role, since 94 percent live in 13 key electoral college states (including sever- al considered "battleground'' states).

The Jewish vote

Since 1948, Democratic presidential candidates have averaged 72 percent of the Jewish vote with a high of 90 percent for Dem- ocrat Lyndon B. Johnson and a low of 45 percent for Democrat Jimmy Carter.

The American Jewish Committee, which has been polling Jewish voters since 1997, found at the end of September that Obama was winning just 57 percent, and McCain 30 percent, of the Jewish vote (Jewish Star, Oct. 10).

Polls this month with a smaller sampling have shown different results.

If we focus on McCain's poll figure as revealed in the AJC data, it is worth noting that George W. Bush won the last two presidential elections with a lower percentage of the Jewish vote - 19 percent and 22 percent - than McCain already has.

It could therefore be that if the McCain-Obama contest is close, Obama will be in serious jeopardy of losing the election.

Factors In the race

Most Jews are liberal Democrats who automatically pull the lever for any Democrat.

Moderate and conservative Democrats are likely to defect to McCain because they believe he will be stronger on foreign policy issues. Orthodox Jews, who also tend to be more conservative, are also more likely to vote for McCain.

The other sub-category of Jews that is likely to cross party lines are older Jews. Many are suspicious of Obama. Some of their perceptions are based on race and others on the lingering misperception that he's a Muslim.

Obama's biggest handicap is his inexperience. By contrast, McCain's experience is reassuring, and his relatively moderate views within the Republican Party may be appealing to some Jews.

Both candidates tried to help themselves by their vice presidential picks. Neither was a great choice for attracting Jewish voters.

While Sarah Palin has energized the Republican base McCain could not win without, her lack of foreign policy experience and conservative Christian social views turn off most Jewish voters.

Obama chose a running mate to fill the gap in his resume in foreign policy. Joe Biden doesn't hurt him, but also doesn't help much. He has a solid voting record on Israel but also has not hesitated to be critical (JEWISH STAR, Aug. 29, 2008).

Foreign policy views

What is more important is the candidates' foreign policy vision and ideology. Jewish voters will have to assess whose world view will make Israel more secure.

McCain is more of a realist who sees Iran, radical Islam and terror as serious threats. He has a muscular vision of America's role in the world and is more likely to use force.

He will rebuild alliances, but is willing to go it alone, and McCain believes we can still accomplish our goals in Iraq.

Obama is an idealist in the Carter mold (without the messiah complex) who believes he can bring people together. He prefers engagement, multilateralism and negotiation to confrontation. He is less likely to use force, though he says he will do what is needed.

Obama opposes Iran's nuclear ambition and believes it can be halted through engagement with Tehran. He wants to withdraw from Iraq and take the fight against terror to Afghanistan.

He has no foreign policy experience and is more likely to be influenced by the State Department. He also has some advisers whose views are troubling to most Jews.

Many people believe Israel will come out well no matter who wins. If that is true, the Jewish vote will be based largely on many of the same issues that most Americane believe are important - notably the economy, health care and energy policy.

Those who do vote on these domestic issues are likely to vote for Obama because of the predominance of liberals among the Jewish population.

[Author Affiliation]

By MITCHELL G. BARD

DIRECTOR, JEWISH VIRTUAL LIBRARY